It is worth noting that since November, the growth rate of pig prices has shown a downward trend, and pork price increases are expected to cool down. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs for 200 wholesale
The results of a survey conducted by the chief economist of CBN in December 2019 show that the 22 economists participating in the survey believe that the year-on-year value of November CPI will be higher than that of the previous month, and the predicted average value is 4.19%, which is higher than the October value released by the Bureau of Statistics. (3.8%) rose. Among them, UBS Wang Tao gave the largest forecast value of 4.7%, while the minimum value of 3.7% came from Guan Qingyou and KPMG Kangyong.
Guo Xiaobei, a researcher at China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, said in an interview with China Business News that food prices are still an important driving force for the CPI rise. It is expected that the CPI increase in November will increase from 3.8% to 4.2%, and the PPI decrease will narrow to -1.6%. -1.5%.
Guo Xiaobei analyzed that in terms of food, pork prices stopped rising in November and showed a more significant decline in the second half of the month, but did not cause a month-on-month drop in food prices in November for two reasons: First, although pork prices fell in the second half of the month However, it did not change the overall rising pattern of the month. Due to the "monthly tailswing" formed by the sharp rise in pork prices at the end of October, the average pork price in November was still higher than that in October. Second, due to the fall in winter supply, fresh vegetables and Fresh fruit prices returned to the rising range, driving up overall food prices. It is expected that food prices may still increase slightly in November.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center's Lianping team said that because food prices fell significantly month-on-year in the same period last year, even if food prices rose in November this year, the year-on-year increase may further expand. A preliminary judgment is that the year-on-year increase in CPI in November may be around 3.9% -4.1%, with a median value of 4%.
On December 6, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Three-year Action Plan to Accelerate the Recovery and Development of Pig Production", which requires that pig production be grasped like grain production, and that stable production and supply of pigs should be the key task of agricultural work. Do everything possible to speed up recovery For pig production, we will do everything possible to ensure the supply of pork during the New Year's Day and the "two sessions", and ensure that production capacity will basically return to near-normal levels by the end of 2020, and will return to normal in 2021.
The monitoring and dispatching data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on December 6 shows that, with the promotion of a series of strong policies, China's pig production capacity has recovered well. At present, the annual production of pigs on large-scale farms with more than 5000 heads has achieved three consecutive years. Monthly pick-up; pig farms with annual production of over 500 heads of pigs have recovered for two consecutive months. The pig inventory will bottom out before the end of the year.
Huang Tao, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Macro-Fixed Income, said that CPI is expected to rebound to about 4.4% in November. The fertility sow inventory has been recently repaired. The pork price has retreated from the high of the beginning of the month in November, but the correction within the month is smaller than the previous month's increase, resulting in a monthly double-digit rise in pork prices. . As for pork substitutes, beef and egg prices may increase year-on-year, and lamb prices may also increase significantly year-on-year.
Changjiang Securities Wu Ge predicts that in terms of prices, pork prices will stop rising and fall under various measures recently by various levels of government to "guarantee supply", but prices of its substitutes such as beef and mutton are still high. Under the expected effects of real estate toughness and infrastructure development, the prices of steel and cement are on the rise, and the deflationary pressure on PPI in the next two months may ease.
At present, the rise in meat prices has disturbed the short-term CPI, but it will not shake the stable operating foundation of the overall level of animal prices, and will not cause prices to continue to rise overall. Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, previously stated that we are fully grounded, qualified and confident to achieve the full year's expected target (CPI is controlled within 3%), and the economy continues to maintain healthy development.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told First Financial News that the upward trend in the current round of CPI is mainly due to structural inflation caused by rising pig prices. The core inflation level after deducting food and energy is still low. The short-term structural rise in prices has limited constraints on monetary policy during the year.(Responsible editor: admin)